🔴Fear And Politics Moving European Markets (w/Dr. Irene Finel-Honigman)
Dr. Irene Finel-Honigman of Columbia University talks with Dee Smith of the Strategic Insights Group about the potential consequences of political fracturing in Europe. Finel-Honigman uses a historical lens and identifies the difference between perception and reality as major factors in Europe’s political and economic troubles. This clip is excerpted from a video published on Real Vision on June 13, 2019 entitled, “The Combustibility of Brexit”. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2FCUvmr About Future Fears: What's coming that we should all be worried about? What keeps the world s greatest investors up at night? Household names of finance discuss the terrifying potential risks posed by artificial intelligence, the rise of social media, autonomous vehicles and more. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Europe Standing on the Edge of the Precipice (w/Dr. Irene Finel-Honigman) https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: For the full transcript visit: https://rvtv.io/2FCUvmr DEE SMITH: Do you see any evolution in the near-term of this crisis? Whether it's a second referendum or a hard Brexit or whatever, that results in something like that? Any kind of real social violence, even on the level of the yellow jackets in France. IRENE FINEL-HONIGMAN: Well, I think this is something we have to be extremely careful about. Because what we did see with vestes jeunes- with the yellow jackets in Paris- was that one false move by President Macron of announcing that he was raising gasoline taxes, while at the same time pushing for massive investments and basically tax breaks for foreign money and certainly for the corporate class in France ignited this. Very sadly, once it was ignited, then, as very often happens, deteriorated into a complete, basically, movement of vandalism, of violence which lost its original purpose and cause. Something like this can happen. So, the UK has to be very careful that politicians, in the process of fighting their own little fight about Brexit, do not, in term, ignite a genuine sense of outrage and anger. DEE SMITH: And it's there to be ignited. IRENE FINEL-HONIGMAN: It is there. It is there. And it's there in every country. And I think in Germany and, again, because of German history, in part- but Angela Merkel has also had to be very, very careful of exactly how she's recalibrated and balanced the role of Germany, particularly as, presumably, the largest donor to all European bailouts, et cetera, with the needs of her country, her constituency. And leaders are going to have to really watch out for that. There's no question. And that's why I mentioned that when we talk about the Russian influence, it's very important to understand how deep the sense of disenfranchisement and marginalization and discontent with, basically, regional and global entities is within countries themselves. It's there. And, yes, I think this is also one reason why the UK will have to be very careful whoever comes in to replace Theresa May. And I think this is not going to be an easy job. And, hopefully, some solution is found. And I'm not sure Boris Johnson's the answer. DEE SMITH: Yeah, it's very interesting. It's almost like the butterfly effect too- these little sparks can just ignite a conflagration. The whole Arab Spring was literally started by one vendor who set himself on fire because he couldn't get his car back after he'd been taken away from it. And the fire literally spread throughout the whole of the region. And so, you do have this- Macron does one little thing that if he'd done it the week before or if he'd done something different, it might not have produced that at all. But you can't really judge where those things are. It's not a predictable system. It's like what they call a catastrophic system in mathematics. It suddenly changes from one state to another without any real thing. So, I do have that concern in the UK. And you just wonder if there was, for example, a second referendum. And, of course, the question there is, what would the question be on the second referendum?
Dr. Irene Finel-Honigman of Columbia University talks with Dee Smith of the Strategic Insights Group about the potential consequences of political fracturing in Europe. Finel-Honigman uses a historical lens and identifies the difference between perception and reality as major factors in Europe’s political and economic troubles. This clip is excerpted from a video published on Real Vision on June 13, 2019 entitled, “The Combustibility of Brexit”. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2FCUvmr About Future Fears: What's coming that we should all be worried about? What keeps the world s greatest investors up at night? Household names of finance discuss the terrifying potential risks posed by artificial intelligence, the rise of social media, autonomous vehicles and more. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Europe Standing on the Edge of the Precipice (w/Dr. Irene Finel-Honigman) https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: For the full transcript visit: https://rvtv.io/2FCUvmr DEE SMITH: Do you see any evolution in the near-term of this crisis? Whether it's a second referendum or a hard Brexit or whatever, that results in something like that? Any kind of real social violence, even on the level of the yellow jackets in France. IRENE FINEL-HONIGMAN: Well, I think this is something we have to be extremely careful about. Because what we did see with vestes jeunes- with the yellow jackets in Paris- was that one false move by President Macron of announcing that he was raising gasoline taxes, while at the same time pushing for massive investments and basically tax breaks for foreign money and certainly for the corporate class in France ignited this. Very sadly, once it was ignited, then, as very often happens, deteriorated into a complete, basically, movement of vandalism, of violence which lost its original purpose and cause. Something like this can happen. So, the UK has to be very careful that politicians, in the process of fighting their own little fight about Brexit, do not, in term, ignite a genuine sense of outrage and anger. DEE SMITH: And it's there to be ignited. IRENE FINEL-HONIGMAN: It is there. It is there. And it's there in every country. And I think in Germany and, again, because of German history, in part- but Angela Merkel has also had to be very, very careful of exactly how she's recalibrated and balanced the role of Germany, particularly as, presumably, the largest donor to all European bailouts, et cetera, with the needs of her country, her constituency. And leaders are going to have to really watch out for that. There's no question. And that's why I mentioned that when we talk about the Russian influence, it's very important to understand how deep the sense of disenfranchisement and marginalization and discontent with, basically, regional and global entities is within countries themselves. It's there. And, yes, I think this is also one reason why the UK will have to be very careful whoever comes in to replace Theresa May. And I think this is not going to be an easy job. And, hopefully, some solution is found. And I'm not sure Boris Johnson's the answer. DEE SMITH: Yeah, it's very interesting. It's almost like the butterfly effect too- these little sparks can just ignite a conflagration. The whole Arab Spring was literally started by one vendor who set himself on fire because he couldn't get his car back after he'd been taken away from it. And the fire literally spread throughout the whole of the region. And so, you do have this- Macron does one little thing that if he'd done it the week before or if he'd done something different, it might not have produced that at all. But you can't really judge where those things are. It's not a predictable system. It's like what they call a catastrophic system in mathematics. It suddenly changes from one state to another without any real thing. So, I do have that concern in the UK. And you just wonder if there was, for example, a second referendum. And, of course, the question there is, what would the question be on the second referendum?